Abstract

The increasing migration of Nigerian medical doctors, popularly referred to as Japa, poses a significant threat to healthcare workforce sustainability, medical education, and healthcare service delivery. Despite growing concern over the phenomenon, limited empirical evidence exists on the socio-demographic factors that predispose academic medical doctors to develop migration intentions. This study investigated the socio-demographic predictors of Japa intention among academic medical doctors in teaching hospitals in Edo State, Nigeria. The study was anchored on Lee's Push-Pull Migration Theory and adopted a cross-sectional survey research design. The population comprised 900 academic medical doctors in three selected teaching hospitals, from which a sample of 450 respondents was selected through a multistage sampling procedure. Data were collected using the Socio-Demographic Predictors of Japa Intention Questionnaire (SDPJIQ) and analysed using Binary Logistic Regression at the 0.05 level of significance. Findings revealed that professional characteristics significantly predicted Japa intention (χ² = 56.82, Nagelkerke R² = .32, p < .001), with overseas work experience emerging as the strongest predictor (OR = 4.57). Family-economic characteristics also significantly predicted Japa intention (χ² = 67.31, Nagelkerke R² = .38, p < .001), with having children abroad exerting the strongest influence (OR = 5.31). Personal-environmental characteristics demonstrated the highest predictive power (χ² = 81.44, Nagelkerke R² = .46, p < .001), with perceived security challenges emerging as the most influential predictor (OR = 5.81), while patriotism significantly reduced migration intention (OR = 0.24). Collectively, the predictors explained 61% of the variance in Japa intention. The study concludes that migration intention among academic medical doctors is shaped by an interaction of professional, family-economic, and environmental factors. The study recommends targeted retention policies, improved welfare and security conditions, career development opportunities, and counselling interventions aimed at reducing migration intentions among medical doctors in Nigeria.