CURRENCY DEPRECIATION AND NON-OIL EXPORT IN NIGERIA (1986 – 2022)

Abstract

In this study, the impact of currency depreciation on non-oil export in Nigeria was examined. Annual time series data spanning the period 1986 – 2022 was employed. Auto Distributive Lag technique was employed. We tested for unit root and co-integration to check for long run relationships. We found no long run relationship. The variables entered into the regression line were non-oil export (NOE) (dependent variable) against nominal exchange rate, domestic investment (DIV), oil output (OUP), trade openness (OPN), inflation rate (INLF) and import (IMP) as explanatory variables. From the results, exchange rate depreciation was negatively related to non-oil export and significant at 5 percent level in the short run. Domestic investment was negatively related to non-oil export and significant at 5 percent level. Import was positively related to non-oil export and significant at 5percent level in the short run. The F-statistics was significant at 5 percent level. Durbin Watson statistic was 2.940517. The results suggested that currency depreciation does not support non-oil export in Nigerian. We recommended that government should review the exchange rate policy from free float back to manage float regime where the government will intermittently intervene in order to control the demand and regulate supply.